Sky News Weather Severe Weather Outlook 2025 -2026 – Sky News Weather has released the fifteenth edition of its annual long-range Severe Weather Outlook 2025 -2026. The Severe Weather Season runs from October 2025 to April 2026 and is our nation’s prime time for severe thunderstorms, floods, tropical cyclones, heatwaves and bushfires.
This report, compiled by Sky News Weather Senior Meteorologists Alison Osborne and Rob Sharpe, reveals the coming season will likely once again be warmer and wetter for many, with a heightened threat of severe cyclones, damaging thunderstorms and flooding.
Oceans to turbocharge rain, storms and floods this spring and summer
Australia’s key drivers of our climate are pointing toward a sixth consecutive wet and stormy Severe Weather Season for much of the country as the Indian and Pacific Oceans switch on the taps for the nation.
Sea temperatures in the Indian Ocean have been cooler near the horn of Africa whilst warmer near Indonesia for the past two months signalling a negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) – historically a rainfall enhancer for the eastern two thirds of Australia in the spring months especially on, and west of the Great Dividing Ranges. The warmer oceans to our northwest feed tropical moisture across Australia, bringing rainbands and fuelling major storm outbreaks.
It is expected that this event will continue through to December. A negative IOD rarely lasts beyond early summer due to the cooling arrival of the Australian Monsoon Season.
Looking toward the Pacific Ocean, ocean temperatures are on the edge of another albeit weak La Niña event as the sea cools near the equator. This weak event could arrive in late spring and linger briefly into summer.
This could be the first time since spring 2022 that a La Niña and negative IOD have coincided contributing to Australia’s second wettest spring on record overall.
La Niña or no La Niña, our forecasts indicate that wind and rainfall patterns in the Pacific Ocean should enhance rainfall in eastern Australia – potentially into the start of next year.
This would see a heightened risk of heavy rainfall events and flooding for the east coast this summer.
A very hot summer for much of Australia
Extra cloud and rain should help to limit the rising heat ahead of the approaching summer for the middle of the country where near-normal temperatures are favoured.
However, for the far north, east coast and the southeast, warmer than usual weather is likely to prevail for the rest of the year.
This is due to the background influence of climate change, a negative southern annular mode and the particularly warm seas surrounding Tasmania.
Early next year the chances of above normal temperatures rise further as the potential for extra cloud and rain diminishes across Australia.
This means that severe and extreme heatwaves become a serious concern across the summer months, especially in the north and southeast.
The NSW coast may escape some of the worst of the summer heat as wet weather should be more commonplace.
Tropical cyclone outlook
An above average cyclone season (November – April) is possible for the second year in a row with high-end severe tropical cyclones likely. On average 11 cyclones develop or move over Australian waters each year with around four crossing the coastline.
2024 – 2025 was a very skewed season. 12 tropical cyclones formed in the Australian region, the most since 2006, but only one, Cyclone Alfred formed outside of WA waters. Cyclone Zelia made landfall in WA’s Pilbara region in February 2025, becoming the latest first-landfall system in eight years. It was the third season in a row with more than five severe tropical cyclones (category 3 or higher).
This cyclone season will be driven by warm oceans to the nation’s north and east, a negative IOD and a possible weak La Niña.
All three indicators historically signal an increase in cyclone activity in Australian waters. That said, climate change has reduced the number of cyclones in recent decades.
The Sky News Weather Meteorologists believe between nine and 12 tropical cyclones are likely over Australian waters this cyclone season, of which two to four should make landfall. This represents an average to slightly below average season. There is a strong likelihood more than five of these systems will be severe – category 3 or higher.
For the full Severe Weather Outlook visit SkyNews.com.au, download the Sky News Australia app or tune into Sky News Weather.
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Sky News Weather Severe Weather Outlook 2025 -2026
