News24 Weather outlook forecasts hot 2026–27 severe weather season – News24 Weather expects Australia’s October 2026 to April 2027 severe-weather season to rank among the five warmest on record. Its sixteenth annual outlook also points to heavy-rain and flood risks in some regions, a potentially active thunderstorm season, fewer cyclones overall and a complicated bushfire picture.
The central takeaway is that a hotter season does not mean every part of Australia will be dry. News24’s senior meteorologists Alison Osborne and Rob Sharpe expect warm seas near the continent to feed rain events even as El Niño influences the broader climate. The result, in their assessment, is a season with sharply different local risks.
This is a long-range outlook, not a warning for any particular town or date. The Bureau of Meteorology’s September outlook likewise describes a mixed rainfall pattern, with a wetter tendency in much of the west and drier conditions across parts of the south and east. Its outlook should not be treated as identical to News24’s forecast, and local warnings will matter as the season unfolds.
El Niño does not settle the rainfall question
News24 says the rest of 2026 is likely to be wetter than usual across much of Western Australia and central Australia. It puts the chance of above-normal rain over eastern inland regions at about 60 to 70 per cent. The warm seas to Australia’s west are a key reason it expects rain-bearing systems to overcome some of El Niño’s usual drying influence.
The forecast is different for Victoria, south-eastern South Australia, Tasmania and the south-western tip of Western Australia. Those areas may miss out on meaningful rainfall through the rest of the year. News24 also flags a risk of below-normal build-up-season rain along the Top End coast and on Cape York Peninsula.
A dry September forms the starting point for the outlook, but News24 expects the competing influences to become more obvious from October. The report stresses that no two El Niño events behave alike. For viewers following a national forecast, the important distinction is between broad seasonal probabilities and the day-to-day storms that can still occur in a drier-leaning region.
The early-2027 rainfall outlook is less certain. News24 says El Niño’s influence usually weakens as the year progresses, while other drivers have not yet become clear enough to support firm calls. Its strongest signal for next year is a drier-than-usual wet season across the far northern tropics.
That does not rule out heavy local totals. One monsoon burst or tropical cyclone can change a seasonal result in a small area. News24 also argues that very warm seas around much of Australia could make individual rain events more intense, elevating flood risk in the already wet centre of the country even if the number of rainy days falls.
Why News24 expects a top-five warm season
News24’s analysis finds Australia’s severe-weather season has warmed by about 1°C since 1990. It says El Niño seasons have averaged 0.3°C warmer than surrounding years. Looking at eight strong classical El Niño events since 1910, the release puts the average difference at 0.54°C. Those figures underpin its forecast that the coming season could be among the five hottest.
The outlet points to three influences working together: El Niño, longer-term climate change and warm seas around the country. Its outlook does not claim every location will have record heat. It forecasts a high national seasonal average and an increased likelihood of heatwaves, while local weather and rainfall will still vary.
That distinction matters because severe weather can take several forms in the same season. Heat can dry grasses quickly, storms can bring damaging winds and lightning, and intense rain can lead to flooding. A wet outlook for one region should not be read as protection from heat or fire, nor should a drier outlook imply that floods are impossible.
Cyclones: fewer systems, but severe risk remains
For the November-to-April tropical-cyclone season, News24 forecasts five to seven cyclones developing or moving through Australian waters, with one to three making landfall. It compares that with an average of around 11 systems in Australian waters and roughly four coastal crossings each year. If realised, the forecast would make it the quietest season in about eleven years.
The previous 2025–26 season produced 11 cyclones in the Australian region and six landfalls, according to the release. It was the fourth consecutive season with more than five severe Category 3-or-higher systems. News24 notes that Tropical Cyclone Fina crossed the coast on 21 November, a record-equalling early landfall.
Its new outlook expects a slower start, citing sea-surface temperatures, a possible positive Indian Ocean Dipole and the powerful El Niño. Later in the season, however, seas to Australia’s north may warm substantially. That additional energy could strengthen any storms that do form. News24 therefore expects severe-cyclone numbers to remain near their long-term average of three even if the total number of cyclones is lower.
That combination is why the report explicitly warns against equating “fewer cyclones” with “no cyclone risk”. One damaging landfall can still be consequential. Communities in tropical areas will need the current official forecast and warnings, rather than relying on a season-long number, as conditions develop.
Storms, heat and the bushfire balance
News24 anticipates a lively thunderstorm season. More storms could increase lightning ignitions as well as the potential for damaging wind, hail and heavy rainfall. Heat could then dry vegetation between rain events, changing the fire threat quickly. The report describes the bushfire outlook as complex because moisture, fuel condition, ignition and wind do not point in the same direction everywhere.
Soils across much of the north, centre and south are wetter than usual, according to its assessment. That may initially hold down fire risk. A sustained hot, dry spell could nevertheless cure grasses rapidly. In the east and south-west, the release says grasses and crops already look comparatively dry, while eastern forests remain greener after several wetter years.
Wind is another key variable. News24 expects lighter-than-usual winds across much of the country under higher pressure, which could limit fire spread on some days. It makes an exception for Tasmania and possibly Victoria, where stronger summer winds and more active fronts could lift danger. It identifies eastern Tasmania and eastern Victoria as among the areas facing the highest fire risk.
Forecast confidence varies by hazard and location. The broad warmth signal is stronger than a precise early-2027 rainfall prediction, and a cyclone count cannot identify a future landfall. Readers should revisit updated forecasts through the season and use official warnings for immediate decisions.
How the outlook compares with the Bureau
The Bureau of Meteorology’s outlook issued on 3 September points to below-average spring rainfall across parts of southern and eastern Australia and above-average rainfall across much of the western half. It also expects above-average daytime temperatures south of the tropics and warmer nights in most areas. The Bureau cautions that even a strong El Niño signal does not by itself determine Australia’s rainfall and temperature outcomes.
That official perspective provides useful context, but it does not validate every figure or hazard estimate in News24’s longer October-to-April report. News24’s cyclone, fire and top-five-heat projections are its own forecasts and should be read as such. Both outlooks can be updated as climate drivers and observed conditions change.
News24 Weather is available on Foxtel channel 601, through its app and its website. For immediate severe-weather information, the Bureau’s current warning products remain the reference point for local conditions.
For more TV Central News24 coverage, head to our broadcaster archive. Read the public Bureau of Meteorology long-range outlook for official seasonal context and updated forecasts.
